Abstract:

This study proposes a fuzzy logic model to forecast gold prices under uncertainty, considering key factors such as global economic risk, financial market volatility, energy shocks, and geopolitical tensions. Using a reference price of 4000 USD/oz at the end of 2025, three scenarios—stable, developing risks, and high-risk conditions—were analysed. The model produced forecast ranges for early 2026: 4050–4100 USD/oz (stable), (4150–4250 USD/oz )(developing), and (4400–4550 USD/oz) (high-risk). Results show that geopolitical risk has the strongest impact on gold prices, and the fuzzy logic approach provides robust, interval-based predictions that capture moderate and extreme fluctuations. The methodology offers practical insights for investors and policymakers navigating volatile global markets.

 Keywords: Gold, Fuzzy Logic, Price Forecasting, Geopolitical Risk, Market Volatility.